Daily Forex Brief 12th October


Daily Forex Brief
LondonWednesday 12th October 2011


Don't panic

It seems that Slovakia has chosen to extend its day in the sun, its parliament having rejected the EFSF expansion in yesterday's vote and the coalition government having collapsed in the process. But there's little need to panic, not least because the euro project has a long history of bumps along the road e.g. France and the rejection of the single currency together with Ireland's initial rejection of the Lisbon Treaty. These things have a habit of working themselves out, with Slovakia set to vote again later this week. As we mentioned yesterday, it's more the point that Slovakia can't afford not to accept the EFSF increase, given it remains one of the poorer nations within the EU. In subsequent comments, German Chancellor Merkel remains certain that the EFSF increase will be passed by the October 23rdEU summit. Given the need to put together a credible bank recapitalisation plan, then the eurozone needs the Slovakia issues to be resolved this week, otherwise it will be caught in a sideshow to approve a now outdated proposal.

Also in today's Daily Forex Brief:

  • Slovakia's finance minister issues warning
  • Germany's misguided push on Greek write-downs
  • Chinese inflation may have peaked

تحلیل جفت ارزها - 12th Oct


PRE EUROPEAN OPEN, DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, 12 OCTOBER 2011
EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYAUD/USDGOLDCRUDE OIL
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
EUR/USD INTRADAY: THE UPSIDE PREVAILS.
Pivot: 1.3570.

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 1.357 with 1.3665 & 1.3705 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1.357 will open the way to 1.352 & 1.347.

Comment: The pair stands above its new support and remains on the upside.

Trend: ST Consolidation; MT Bearish
NEXT »
GBP/USD INTRADAY: INTRADAY SUPPORT AROUND 1.553
Pivot: 1.5530.

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 1.553 with 1.561 & 1.5665 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.553 will call for 1.55 & 1.5475.

Comment: The RSI is breaking above a declining trend line, the pair should rebound on its support.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT »
USD/JPY INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE.
Pivot: 76.90.

Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions @ 76.85 with 76.5 & 76.3 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 76.9 will call for a rebound towards 77.1 & 77.2.

Comment: The pair remains under pressure and is challenging its support.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT »
AUD/USD INTRADAY: INTRADAY SUPPORT AROUND 0.985.
Pivot: 0.985

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 0.985 with targets @ 1 & 1.005 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 0.985 look for further downside with 0.978 & 0.9725 as targets.

Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT »
GOLD (SPOT) INTRADAY: THE BIAS REMAINS BULLISH.
Pivot: 1650.00

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 1650 with 1685 & 1700 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1650 will call for 1630 & 1600.

Comment: The price remains in a bullish channel.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT »
CRUDE OIL (NOV 11) INTRADAY: FURTHER UPSIDE.
Pivot: 84.00

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 84 with 86.25 & 87.95 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 84 will call for a slide towards 81.5 & 80.

Comment: The price is challenging its bullish channel support.

تحلیل جفت ارزها - 11th Oct


PRE US OPEN, DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, 11 OCTOBER 2011
EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYAUD/USDGOLDCRUDE OIL
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
EUR/USD INTRADAY: INTRADAY SUPPORT AROUND 1.357.
Pivot: 1.357

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.357 with targets @ 1.37 & 1.376 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.357 look for further downside with 1.352 & 1.347 as targets.

Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.
NEXT »
GBP/USD INTRADAY: INTRADAY SUPPORT AROUND 1.561.
Pivot: 1.561

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.561 with targets @ 1.569 & 1.5715 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.561 look for further downside with 1.558 & 1.553 as targets.

Comment: The RSI is mixed with a bullish bias.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT »
USD/JPY INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE.
Pivot: 76.9

Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 76.9 with targets @ 76.5 & 76.3 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 76.9 look for further upside with 77.1 & 77.2 as targets.

Comment: The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance at 76.9.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT »
AUD/USD INTRADAY: SUPPORTED BY A RISING TREND LINE.
Pivot: 0.988

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 0.988 with targets @ 1.001 & 1.005 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 0.988 look for further downside with 0.98 & 0.9725 as targets.

Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT »
GOLD (SPOT) INTRADAY: FURTHER UPSIDE.
Pivot: 1645.00

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 1645 with targets @ 1685 & 1700.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1645 will call for 1630 & 1600.

Comment: The price remains in a bullish channel.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT »
CRUDE OIL (NOV 11) INTRADAY: THE BIAS REMAINS BULLISH.
Pivot: 84.00

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 84 with 86.25 & 87.95 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 84 will call for 81.5 & 80.

Comment: The price is challenging its bullish channel support.