Dow Jones Newsletter 10th June 2011
| Ifcmarkets Intraday snapshot |
| EUR/USD |
The short-term downtrend is expected to extend below 1.4477. Thursday's weakness completed the head-and-shoulders top pattern on the 60-minute chart, and meeting the pattern's measured objective at 1.4428 is the next port of call. A 1.618 Fibonacci extension target at 1.4442 will look to defend the 1.4428 target. Regaining ground above 1.4552 is required to question the EUR bear threat, opening 1.4565 and 1.4655. |
| GBP/USD |
| The focus is back on the June 3 low at 1.6286, as GBP bears look to regain control of the short term. The failure to meet the upside target at 1.6499 is the driving force behind this fresh downwave, and a break below 1.6286 would clear the path for a wave equality target at 1.6212. Regaining ground above 1.6388 would provide a temporary respite, but corrective upside scope is limited. |
| USD/JPY |
| Friday's Asian session high at 80.47 is at risk of becoming a near-term bull failure, as the sharp setback eyes the intraday higher low at 79.93. A push below 79.93 would confirm the bull failure, and bring Wednesday's low at 79.69 back into the picture. A recovery above 80.30 is needed to suggest a return to the 80.47 is possible. |
| AUD/USD |
| The recovery off 1.0563 is looking to create an inverse head-and-shoulders base on the 60-minute chart. Thursday's low at 1.0563 has already become a potential near-term bear failure, but a break above 1.0665 is required to confirm the short-term reversal pattern. The neckline lies in the 1.0650 area, and a break above 1.0665 would create room for 1.0739. A push below 1.0563 would negate the reversal pattern, and extend the setback towards the May 25 bear failure reaction low at 1.0441. |
| ifcmarkets Focus |
| Trichet, the federalist, has cracked the whip. And, in the longer run, that should be good for the euro. The European Central Bank president caused a certain amount of consternation by his refusal to go along with a German plan for a new Greek debt restructuring Thursday. But, in hindsight, his stance was entirely predictable. In fact, in his quest to push European Union politicians towards more fiscal coordination, through the creation of a euro zone finance ministry, Trichet is hardly likely to make their life easy. As he made "crystal clear" in his press conference, he has no intention of supporting a debt refinancing that would involve private bondholders and would likely trigger credit agencies to call a default. Germany, the prime proponent of the roll over that would ease Greece's debt burden for another year or two, is calling for voluntary participation to prevent the default label being slapped on the whole episode. But, Gareth Berry, one of UBS's currency strategists, probably echoes many of our thoughts with his summary: "It is hard to see how Greece could get EUR30 billion out of the private sector wholly voluntarily." In no uncertain terms, Trichet was telling the politicians once again that their fancy plans are not going to work and the only way to produce real progress on the peripheral debt issue is to force greater political coordination on fiscal issues. In other words, with the ECB doing its job of monetary coordination, it is now up to European leaders to use this debt crisis as an excuse to closer coordinate fiscal policies. This might not only help to resolve the immediate debt issue and remove the threat of financial collapse but it will also make Brussels more powerful as dreams of a federalist Europe get one step closer. In the longer run, of course, this will be what saves the euro. |
| Europe |
| Currency markets remained on the defensive Friday during London trading hours as dealers re-evaluated the path of future interest rates in Europe and as unresolved sovereign debt worries continued to claw away at confidence, with weak Chinese and U.K. economic data further darkening the mood. Continued jitters followed a sharp selloff in the euro Thursday after ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet refused to commit to a sustained monetary policy tightening cycle and as lower inflation forecasts decreased the chances of meaningful rate rises in the coming months. Lowered expectations of yield support for the single currency helped to bring the euro zone's debt troubles back to the fore, hitting the euro and reducing demand for currencies regarded as pro-growth and relatively risky. "The euro is getting smoked at the moment," said Paul Mackel, a currency strategist at HSBC in London, noting that the currency was weaker not only against its major counterparts but also against emerging market currencies such as the Mexican peso. News that Germany's parliament approved a motion that private bondholders and the International Monetary Fund should bear partial responsibility for any further aid to Greece will put German Chancellor Angela Merkel under pressure to pursue measures that Trichet spoke out against Thursday, adding to the uncertainty and helping to keep the euro below the $1.45 mark against the dollar. "For now the market is trading a bearish momentum on peripherals," said Sebastien Galy, a currency strategist at Societe Generale in a note to clients, noting that spreads between weaker euro-zone countries and their German counterparts have broken through the May highs but haven't yet hit levels seen in January. "Euro/Swiss downward momentum is still a fine trade," Galy added. |
| Asia |
| The dollar fell against the yen Friday in Asia as investors expect U.S. consumer spending to remain lackluster for the time being, which would reduce the likelihood of a rise in U.S. interest rates. Traders said interest rate differentials between Japan and the U.S. are currently the major factor driving the greenback's move against the yen. The dollar usually rises when the U.S. rate rises, but that's not a likely scenario for the time being, said Hideki Amikura, a senior dealer at Nomura Trust and Banking, citing U.S. trade data released Thursday that showed increased exports but fewer imports in April. "Decreased imports suggest that consumer spending is still sluggish," he said. "It looks like we cannot abandon the idea that the dollar is weak." He also noted that non-Japanese hedge funds, which have a yen-bearish view on the back of speculation that Japan's current account surplus will shrink, began to give up the bet and instead joined yen-buying streams. As of 0450 GMT, the dollar is at Y80.08 from Y80.36 in New York Thursday. Citibank Japan's chief currency strategist Osamu Takashima said the greenback may fall to Y78.50, adding the volume of Japanese exporters' dollar-selling is increasing. Still, many Tokyo market participants believe a sharp rise in the yen is unlikely, indicating a lack of concern over the possibility of yen-selling intervention for now. These traders pointed out there is solid yen-selling activity when the dollar is below the Y80.00 mark, part of which is coming from importers, they added. Meanwhile, the euro declined, to $1.4490 from $1.4510 and to Y116.05 from Y116.63. Nomura's Amikura said that's because investors have no more factors to justify euro-buying. |
| World |
| Worries about potential for a Greek sovereign debt default outweighed signals that Europe's central bank would soon raise interest rates, dragging the euro lower Thursday. Another day of back-and-forth on extending a second lifeline to struggling Greece weighed on the common currency. And unlike March's ECB meeting--when President Jean-Claude Trichet surprised markets by pointing toward a rate increase--Thursday's hint was widely expected and largely priced in. "The last time he said 'strong vigilance,' that kind of caught markets off-guard," said Brian Dolan, chief currency strategist at www.IFCmarkets.com in Bedminster, N.J., referring to the so-called magic words that reflect a tough-on-inflation stance. "Markets had been lulled to sleep," he said. This time, it was classic "buy the rumor, sell the fact." The euro initially soared when Trichet used those magic words, interpreted as signaling another rate rise is on its way next month. But those gains were quickly wiped out by Trichet's repeated opposition to a restructuring of Greek debt throughout the conference. Fitch Ratings weighed in, saying it was hard to argue Greece was "not distressed," and said it would review the ratings of Portugal and Ireland if the cash-strapped Hellenic nation was to restructure its debts. That highlighted fears that, far from being contained, the region's debt problem could spread, infecting other debt-stressed countries. An increase in key interest rates could only exacerbate those problems, some analysts said. "Trichet's comments were a slap in the face for anyone hoping that the ECB will use monetary policy to save the region from its debt crisis," said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT Forex in New York. The ECB's tough-on-inflation stance "has brought to the fore concerns about how the relatively weaker peripheral euro-zone economies will be able to weather higher borrowing costs as they struggle," said Samarjit Shankar, managing director of global strategy at BNY Mellon in Boston. While Trichet would not commit to a July rate hike, only once--in September 2007--has the ECB not followed through on a "heads up" to raise rates signaled in Thursday's manner, said BNP Paribas euro-zone economist Ken Wattret. |
تحلیل جفت ارزها - 10th June سری دوم
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| Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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