تحلیل جفت ارزها - 20th July

PRE EUROPEAN OPEN, Daily Technical analysis, 20 July 2011
EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYAUD/USDGoldCrude Oil
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
EUR/USD intraday: end of the consolidation.
Pivot: 1.4095.

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions @ 1.41 with 1.4225 & 1.4285 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1.4095 will open the way to 1.406 & 1.402.

Comment: The pair has broken above a declining trend line.

Trend: ST Ltd Upside; MT Range
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GBP/USD intraday: continuation of the rebound.
Pivot: 1.6085.

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions @ 1.6095 with 1.6175 & 1.62 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.6085 will call for a slide towards 1.604 & 1.6015.

Comment: The RSI and the pair broke above bearish trend lines.
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USD/JPY intraday: intraday support around 78.85
Pivot: 78.85.

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions @ 78.9 with 79.28 & 79.5 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 78.85 will call for a slide towards 78.5 & 78.2.

Comment: A support base at 78.85 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
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AUD/USD intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 1.0655

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.0655 with targets @ 1.075 & 1.079 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.0655 look for further downside with 1.063 & 1.061 as targets.

Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
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GOLD (Spot) intraday: consolidation.
Pivot: 1600.00

Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 1600 with 1576 & 1569 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1600 will open the way to 1610 & 1618.

Comment: The price has broken below its rising trend line.
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Crude Oil (Sep 11) intraday: further advance.
Pivot: 97.65

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 97.65 with 99.25 & 99.85 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 97.65 will call for 96.75 & 95.65.

Comment: Intraday support around 97.65.
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