تحلیل جفت ارزها - 14th July سری دوم

PRE US OPEN, Daily Technical analysis, 14 July 2011
EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYAUD/USDGoldCrude Oil
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
EUR/USD intraday: the bias remains bullish.
Pivot: 1.416

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.416 with targets @ 1.4285 & 1.4375 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.416 look for further downside with 1.411 & 1.405 as targets.

Comment: The pair remains on the upside and is challenging its new resistance.
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GBP/USD intraday: the bias remains bullish.
Pivot: 1.6075

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.6075 with targets @ 1.62 & 1.6225 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.6075 look for further downside with 1.603 & 1.6 as targets.

Comment: The pair is rebounding on its support as the RSI is turning up.
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USD/JPY intraday: turning up.
Pivot: 78.5

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 78.5 with targets @ 79.5 & 79.9 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 78.5 look for further downside with 78.2 & 77.8 as targets.

Comment: The pair has broken above its MT declining trend line and should post further advance.
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AUD/USD intraday: towards 1.0855.
Pivot: 1.0675

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.0675 with targets @ 1.0855 & 1.089 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.0675 look for further downside with 1.0625 & 1.0575 as targets.

Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
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GOLD (Spot) intraday: target 1618
Pivot: 1572.00

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 1572 with targets @ 1605 & 1618.

Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1572 will open the way to 1563 & 1554.

Comment: The RSI advocates for further upside.
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Crude Oil (Aug 11) intraday: further advance.
Pivot: 97.50

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 97.5 with 98.95 & 99.4 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 97.5 will open the way to 96.5 & 95.9.

Comment: The RSI lacks downward momentum.

Daily Forex Brief 14th july

Daily Forex Brief
London: Thursday 14th July 2011


Now the dollar is in the crosshairs

With Moody's making good on its promise to put the USD on review for possible downgrade if the debt limit is not raised by mid-month, the latest talks in Washington appearing to end in further acrimony, and the Fed Chairman leaving the door ajar regarding QE3, the fx market has (for a change) been directing its ire at the dollar over recent days. For the euro, this is providing some much-needed respite at a time of considerable vulnerability. Indeed, the EUR almost reached 1.43 overnight (now 1.42) just two days ago; it was looking dreadful down near 1.38. Although the single currency has enjoyed a bounce, it is both the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc that have the trust of both traders and investors these days. USD/JPY again touched 78.50 overnight, before spiking higher to 79.50 amidst rumours that the BOJ had intervened. The rhetoric out of Tokyo is intensifying, with Finance Minister Noda describing the recent gains in the yen as "problematic". The other currency of choice remains the Swiss franc, which has continued to advance overnight - the Swissie printed a new record high of 0.8083, while EUR/CHF also achieved a fresh record low at just under 1.15. With major currencies such as the dollar, the euro and the pound being continually debased, it is little wonder that investors are seeking refuge in currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc, as well as gold. The latter is now up to $1,585 an ounce, an increase of $100 in less than two weeks.

Also in today's Daily Forex Brief:

  • Bernanke maintains the steady hand
  • Will the ECB stand by while Rome burns?
  • The UK's stalling labour market.

تحلیل جفت ارزها - 14th July

PRE EUROPEAN OPEN, Daily Technical analysis, 14 July 2011
EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYAUD/USDGoldCrude Oil
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
EUR/USD intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 1.4110.

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions @ 1.412 with targets @ 1.4285 & 1.4375.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.411 will call for 1.405 & 1.3975.

Comment: The pair remains on the upside and is challenging its resistance, the RSI is mixed to bullish.

Trend: ST Ltd Upside; MT Range
Next »
GBP/USD intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 1.6075.

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions @ 1.6085 with 1.62 & 1.6225 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.6075 will call for a slide towards 1.603 & 1.6.

Comment: The pair is facing a pull back ahead of further advance.
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USD/JPY intraday: capped by a negative trend line.
Pivot: 79.15.

Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions @ 79.1 with 78.5 & 78.2 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 79.15 will call for a rebound towards 79.5 & 79.9.

Comment: The pair remains capped by a declining trend line.
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AUD/USD intraday: towards 1.0855.
Pivot: 1.0675

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.0675 with targets @ 1.0855 & 1.089 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.0675 look for further downside with 1.0625 & 1.0575 as targets.

Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
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GOLD (Spot) intraday: further advance.
Pivot: 1572.00

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 1572 with 1593 & 1605 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1572 will open the way to 1563 & 1554.

Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
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Crude Oil (Aug 11) intraday: further upside.
Pivot: 96.50

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 96.5 with 98.2 & 98.95 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 96.5 will open the way to 95.9 & 95.15.

Comment: The immediate trend remains down but the momentum is weak. Support threshold at 96.5.