Daily Forex Brief 03rd August
Daily Forex Brief |
The political theatricals in Washington have captivated markets for the past few weeks, but now the show is over, there's a feeling that the crowd is hungry for more. For Tuesday, there was a quick shift back to Europe to see what the supporting cast was up to. The spread of Belgian bonds over Germany's pushed out above 200bp for the first time since the start of monetary union, whilst France was also pushing higher (out to 75bp over Germany). Two of the past four trading sessions we have seen true de-coupling of Germany and France, so German yields moving lower as French yields move higher. The price action on the Swiss franc is also indicative of investors becoming more concerned with sovereign balance sheets, with yesterday's down-move on EUR/CHF the biggest one seen since the start of EMU back in 1999. The other thing we are seeing is banks hoarding cash, especially in the eurozone money market. All this is telling us that, despite the deals cobbled together on both sides of the Atlantic, the show is far from over. |
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Also in today's Daily Forex Brief:
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تحلیل جفت ارزها - 1st Aug سری دوم
PRE US OPEN, DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, 01 AUGUST 2011 EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD GOLD CRUDE OIL Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out. EUR/USD INTRADAY: THE UPSIDE PREVAILS. Pivot: 1.435
Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.435 with targets @ 1.4465 & 1.454 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.435 look for further downside with 1.4275 & 1.4225 as targets.
Comment: The RSI is supported by a rising trend line, the pair is on the upside and is breaking above its resistance.
NEXT » GBP/USD INTRADAY: THE UPSIDE PREVAILS. Pivot: 1.6375
Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.6375 with targets @ 1.6475 & 1.6510 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.6375 look for further downside with 1.632 & 1.626 as targets.
Comment: The pair is rebounding on its support as the RSI is turning up.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT » USD/JPY INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE. Pivot: 77.75
Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 77.75 with targets @ 77.25 & 77 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 77.75 look for further upside with 78 & 78.3 as targets.
Comment: The pair is under pressure and should face further weakness.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT » AUD/USD INTRADAY: BULLISH BIAS ABOVE 1.093. Pivot: 1.093
Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.093 with targets @ 1.1075 & 1.115 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.093 look for further downside with 1.088 & 1.079 as targets.
Comment: The RSI broke above a declining trend line.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT » GOLD (SPOT) INTRADAY: THE DOWNSIDE PREVAILS. Pivot: 1620.00
Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 1620 with targets @ 1607 & 1600.
Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1620 will call for a rebound towards 1627 & 1632.
Comment: The break below 1620 is a negative signal that has opened a path to 1607.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT » CRUDE OIL (SEP 11) INTRADAY: REBOUND IN SIGHT. Pivot: 96.00
Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 96 with targets @ 98 & 99.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 96 will open the way to 95 & 94.
Comment: The RSI broke above a bearish trend line.
Daily Forex Brief 01st August
Daily Forex Brief |
The political leadership in Washington has produced a deal over the weekend on raising the debt ceiling. Leaders of both parties in both houses are backing the deal and this should allow it to pass later today when it's voted on in both houses. After the tragedy and farce of recent weeks, this news is understandably being met with some relief in markets, with the Swiss franc and yen softer, gold lower and stocks higher in Asia. Still, this is a deal fashioned on the floor of political theatre and seconds before the final curtain was due to fall. As such, it's not the best deal for the US by far and the issue of a US downgrade won't go off the agenda. The USD 2.5 trln of cuts is less than was being looked for by ratings agencies. Furthermore, the remaining cuts (to achieve USD 4 trln of savings originally targeted) are to come from a committee that is due to report later this year and if both houses can't agree on that, automatic cuts will come in, primarily on defence and Medicare. The past year has shown that Washington has always backed away from the tough choices on government borrowing and shunned higher taxes, so unless there is a change in approach on Capitol Hill, a debt downgrade is still on the cards. |
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Also in today's Daily Forex Brief:
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