تحلیل جفت ارزها - 30th july

PRE EUROPEAN OPEN, DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, 30 AUGUST 2011 EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD GOLD CRUDE OIL Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out. EUR/USD INTRADAY: THE UPSIDE PREVAILS. Pivot: 1.4475. Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions @ 1.4485 with targets @ 1.455 & 1.458. Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.4475 will call for 1.443 & 1.4395. Comment: The RSI is supported by a rising trend line, the pair stands above its support and should post a rebound. Trend: ST Ltd Upside; MT Range NEXT » GBP/USD INTRADAY: THE UPSIDE PREVAILS. Pivot: 1.6365. Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions @ 1.6375 with targets @ 1.6445 & 1.6475. Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1.6365 will open the way to 1.6325 & 1.6275. Comment: The pair stands above its support and remains on the upside, the RSI is challenging its rising trend line. « PREVIOUS | NEXT » USD/JPY INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE. Pivot: 77.10. Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions @ 77.05 with 76.7 & 76.5 as next targets. Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 77.1 will open the way to 77.3 & 77.5. Comment: The RSI is badly directed, the pair stands below its resistance and should face further weakness. « PREVIOUS | NEXT » AUD/USD INTRADAY: BULLISH BIAS ABOVE 1.061. Pivot: 1.061 Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.061 with targets @ 1.075 & 1.0785 in extension. Alternative scenario: Below 1.061 look for further downside with 1.0545 & 1.052 as targets. Comment: The RSI is supported by a rising trend line. « PREVIOUS | NEXT » GOLD (SPOT) INTRADAY: KEY ST RESISTANCE AT 1811 Pivot: 1811.00 Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 1811 with targets @ 1770 & 1742. Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1811 will call for 1830 & 1855. Comment: Gold prices remain below the 50 period moving average. « PREVIOUS | NEXT » CRUDE OIL (OCT 11) INTRADAY: BULLISH BIAS ABOVE 85.9 Pivot: 85.90 Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 85.9 with targets @ 88.2 & 89.15. Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 85.9 will open the way to 85 & 82.9. Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.

تحلیل جفت ارزها - 29th july

PRE EUROPEAN OPEN, DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, 29 AUGUST 2011

EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD GOLD CRUDE OIL

Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.

EUR/USD INTRADAY: THE UPSIDE PREVAILS. Pivot: 1.4450. Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions @ 1.446 with 1.454 & 1.458 as next targets. Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.445 will call for a slide towards 1.4395 & 1.433. Comment: The pair has broken above its declining trend line and is challenging its previous high. Trend: ST Ltd Upside; MT Range NEXT » GBP/USD INTRADAY: THE UPSIDE PREVAILS. Pivot: 1.6325. Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions @ 1.6335 with 1.64 & 1.6445 in sight. Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.6325 will call for 1.6275 & 1.621. Comment: The pair is supported by a rising trend line, the pair is on the upside and is challenging its resistance. « PREVIOUS | NEXT » USD/JPY INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE. Pivot: 77.00. Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions @ 76.95 with 76.5 & 76.3 as next targets. Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 77 will call for 77.3 & 77.5. Comment: The pair is under pressure and is approaching its support. « PREVIOUS | NEXT » AUD/USD INTRADAY: THE BIAS REMAINS BULLISH. Pivot: 1.0585 Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.0585 with targets @ 1.068 & 1.075 in extension. Alternative scenario: Below 1.0585 look for further downside with 1.0545 & 1.052 as targets. Comment: The RSI advocates for further advance. « PREVIOUS | NEXT » GOLD (SPOT) INTRADAY: THE DOWNSIDE PREVAILS. Pivot: 1855.00 Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 1855 with 1796 & 1770 as next targets. Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1855 will call for a rebound towards 1878 & 1896. Comment: The upward potential is likely to be limited by the resistance area around 1840. « PREVIOUS | NEXT » CRUDE OIL (OCT 11) INTRADAY: THE BIAS REMAINS BULLISH. Pivot: 82.90 Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 82.9 with 86.6 & 88.2 as next targets. Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 82.9 will call for a slide towards 81.7 & 81.2. Comment: The price has struck against the 50% retracement level at 82.95. The RSI advocates for further advance.

Dow Jones Newsletter 26th August

FRIDAY, AUGUST 26, 2011

ifcmarkets INTRADAY SNAPSHOT EUR/USD Remains trapped within a EUR bullish pennant continuation pattern, and resistance at 1.4457 is the immediate focus. Thursday's strong recovery off 1.4327 keeps the overall tone EUR positive for now, and only a break above 1.4457 would create room for further gains to recent highs at 1.4500 and 1.4518. A setback below 1.4370 would provide respite, but a break below 1.4327 is required to put EUR bears in control. GBP/USD A limited corrective recovery towards 1.6396 is underway, after finding support at 1.6260. However, while the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 1.6617/1.6260 decline lies intact at 1.6437, the main threat is for renewed GBP bear pressure on the important 1.6253/60 support area. A break below 1.6253 is required to leave the Aug. 19 reaction high at 1.6617 as a potential near-term bull failure, creating room for further weakness towards the Aug. 11 reaction low at 1.6114. Only a sustained break above 1.6437 would question the bearish GBP outlook. USD/JPY The short-term uptrend off 75.94 is beginning to find substance, and meeting a wave equality target at 77.76 is the immediate objective. Friday's Asian session weakness needs to be contained above support at 77.05, and a push above 77.46 would bring Thursday's 77.70 high back into focus, ahead of 77.76. Failure to keep support at 77.05 intact would question the USD bullish outlook, exposing 76.84. AUD/USD Key short-term resistance at 1.0515 is under threat, following the strong recovery off 1.0418 during Friday's Asian session. However, AUD bears will look to protect 1.0515, as a break above there would put AUD bulls in control and create room for more gains towards 1.0603. A setback below 1.0438 is required to bring the 1.0418 low back into the picture, threatening further weakness towards 1.0315. ifcmarkets FOCUS U-turns at the Bank of England don't mean U-turns for the pound. In fact, support for sterling might well increase if the fiscal austerity grip on Europe intensifies and the monetary easing expected in the U.S. keeps Treasury yields on the slide. Of course, the u-turn signaled by the arch-hawk on the Bank of England monetary policy committee, Martin Weale, with his suggestion that more quantitative easing might be needed after all, is bad news for the U.K. economy. It is a further acknowledgement that the country's second quarter growth was fairly dire and that its third quarter isn't going to be much better. This week, the bad news has continued to pour in with GDP confirmed at only 0.2% in the March to June period and with the CBI's latest distributive sales survey showing the most negative reading since May 2010 and the outlook from retailers suggesting sales will slow to the recessionary level last seen in early 2009. Little wonder that Weale, who has long been calling for a rate increase, now thinks the bank should be prepared to launch another asset purchase scheme once the current high level of inflation has subsided. With real rates now firmly in negative territory, the pound should hardly been seen as the place to be. But, it is. Demand for gilts remains firm and sterling itself has remained well within its recent strong trading range both against the dollar and the euro. The reason for this is fairly straight forward: investors may not be that enamoured with developments in the U.K. economy but they are even less attracted by what is happening in the U.S. and Europe. Rising speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will resort to its own further monetary easing has overshadowed the dollar for weeks and seems unlikely to go away. Although Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke continues to keep the market guessing, the continued deterioration in the outlook for the U.S. economy means that speculation over more quantitative easing will remain high and the dollar will remain under selling pressure. Over in the euro zone, talk that the European Central Bank will have to reverse the rate increase it announced in July is starting to spread as economic data from core countries such as Germany shows that growth there is deteriorating rapidly too. But, perhaps of even more importance in terms of making the euro less attractive against the pound, is the impression that most of the countries in the euro zone will be forced to adopt more stringent austerity measures in the coming months to help reduce the level of the debt burden that threatens so many countries with default. By comparison, the fiscal policies introduced by the U.K. coalition government when they came to power in May last year should help to put the U.K. economy in advance. In other words, the U.K. is already in the process of taking its fiscal medicine and although the country could still fall back into recession, its recovery is likely to come well ahead of those countries across the channel that are still mired in a debt crisis. EUROPE Caution reigned in the currency markets ahead of Bernanke's speech with foreign-exchange players shying away from placing any new bets just in case he says something that could jolt markets. As a result, there has been very little movement in the markets since European trading got underway, with the U.S. dollar under pressure with the yen trading at 77, while the euro and the Australian dollar remained perky. ASIA The dollar weakened against the yen and the euro in Asia Friday on the view Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's much-awaited speech later may yet contain something that weighs on Treasury yields, even as expectations wane for greater stimulus from the central bank. Friday's slight dollar falls came as investor's continued to adjust bets ahead of Bernanke's speech at 1400 GMT at the central bank's gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyo. Any suggestion the Fed is mulling steps, even if not quantitative easing, could pressure down already low U.S. interest rates, weighing on the dollar. The greenback gained in recent sessions before Friday as many investors bet Bernanke wouldn't hint at any third round of quantitative easing. He and his aides have done nothing to encourage such speculation recently. Bernanke is known for valuing transparency and has previously hinted at major moves before making them. But on Friday some players bet Bernanke may still say something that could be interrupted as supportive of risk assets, in order to avoid triggering disappointment that sparks a sell-off in share markets. Such a statement would likely be enough to weigh on the dollar further, dealers said. "Bernanke may pay lip service to the possibility of some kind of measures, in order not to completely disappoint equity markets, as it seems increasingly likely he won't pledge any QE3," as a third round of quantitative easing would be called, said Shuichi Kanehira, a senior FX dealer at Mizuho Corporate Bank. If the Fed chief doesn't suggest any additional stimulus steps and fails to cushion the blow to risk-sensitive assets through lip service to the possibility of future moves, the dollar would be the major winner, analysts said. "We expect (an equities) market disappointment to be mainly dollar positive as we believe the market continues to price in a substantial (Fed) balance sheet expansion," even after recent softening of such expectations, Barclays Capital said in a research report. WORLD Investors placed bets on the dollar in anticipation of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole, Wyo., on Friday. With the market increasingly convinced that Bernanke will not announce a new round of dollar-weakening stimulus, renewed demand for safe-haven assets lifted the greenback. Few investors expect Bernanke to pledge any additional quantitative easing or "QE3," to bolster the U.S. economy by buying bonds. The dollar hit a session high versus the yen at Y77.70, up 1% from the prior day's closing levels, and continued to trade near that level throughout the day. "The conclusion is that there will be nothing fresh from Bernanke but he'll remain supportive of the economy, and that in itself is dollar positive," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior market analyst at Interactive Brokers. "As stocks have come off and fear returns [to the market] as exhibited in decline in global yields, we're left with no monetary stimulus," which has encouraged dollar-buying, he said. The euro initially saw support from French president Nicolas Sarkozy's remarks defending the common currency, and Warren Buffet's vote of confidence for battered banking giant Bank of America. But any euro gains were quickly overshadowed by concerns about the global economy: a higher-than-expected U.S. jobless claims number and the sudden slide in German stock benchmarks drove investors to government debt and the dollar.