تحلیل جفت ارزها - 9th June
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Dow Jones Newsletter 8th June
| EUR/USD |
The focus is now on the 1.4700/10 resistance area, as the steep two-week uptrend extends. There is a wave equality target at 1.4800 that remains on course to be met, and the bull wave off the June 2 higher low at 1.4307 will remain solid while support at 1.4594 holds. Only below 1.4594 would question thoughts of meeting the 1.4800 upside target, exposing Monday's low at 1.4557. |
| GBP/USD |
| Tuesday's bullish outside day suggests the projected resistance level at 1.6499 is likely to be met. Keeping support at 1.6366 is important to maintaining the GBP bull tone, and a break through 1.6499 would bring the May 31 reaction high at 1.6546 back into the picture. A break below 1.6366 would question the positive GBP outlook, but only below 1.6325 would put bears in control. |
| USD/JPY |
| Support has emerged at 79.75, to protect the May 5 reaction low at 79.57. The immediate focus is on testing Tuesday's high at 80.33, and concerted gains would open 80.70 and the solid 80.85 resistance area. A reversal below 79.75 is required to put USD bears back in control of the short term, exposing 79.57 and 79.29. |
| AUD/USD |
| Pressure is building on key projected support at 1.0606, as the setback off the June 3 reaction high at 1.0776 extends. Failure to keep 1.0606 and the nearby 1.0588 higher low intact would leave the 1.0776 high as a bull failure, and create scope for more weakness towards the May 25 reaction low at 1.0441. A recovery above 1.0722 is required to provide respite, opening 1.0758 and the 1.0776 high. |
| IFCmarkets Focus |
| The yen's rally back to that emotive level of Y80 to the dollar should be triggering very loud alarms at the Bank of Japan. Not only does this rise take the yen back to levels last seen in the immediate wake of the March 11 earthquake but it could signal the start of an even more significant period of yen strength. Japanese officials, including Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, have of course been quick to launch verbal intervention this week, warning that they are closely monitoring the move. However, they will soon have to do considerably more than that if they are to stop the yen from damaging the Japanese recovery. The Ministry of Finance is responsible for currency management, but the central bank actually carries out the intervention. The problem for the Bank of Japan is that unlike the yen's last sharp rally after the earthquake, the Japanese currency probably won't be driven by just speculative flows. On the contrary, the three major factors that normally drive the yen--risk sentiment, yield differentials, and Japanese investor flows--have all turned very much in a positive direction. Let's start with risk sentiment. Although there have been periodic bouts of improvement in recent months, global risk sentiment is deteriorating again in line with signs that global growth is faltering and that the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone is still far from over. In case anyone had missed the point on global growth, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke rammed the point home with his comments this week that accommodative policies are still needed in the U.S. Even Australia, which was once the champion of G-10 growth, is putting off its plans to raise interest rates with the Reserve Bank of Australia turning even more dovish than expected this week. All this is taking its toll on risk sentiment and ensuring that the yen remains attractive as one of the major safe havens of choice. |
| Europe |
| The pound suffered an early setback Wednesday after a news report quoting a Moody's official saying the U.K.'s AAA credit rating may be under threat if growth remains weak and the government fails to meet fiscal consolidation targets. Notably, the comment was no different to Moody's pronouncements in late March, showing just how sensitive markets are at present. The pound fell to $1.6355 against the dollar from $1.6425 ahead of the news, while the euro rose to GBP0.8977 from around GBP0.8937, in the wake of the Market News International report. Moody's couldn't immediately be reached for comment. Meanwhile, the latest drop in oil prices may enhance the inverse relationship between the commodity and the greenback as oil producers recycle their hoard of dollars, said Rabobank. "That said, the impact on EUR/USD is likely to be countered by support for the euro ahead of [Thursday's] ECB council meeting given speculation that Trichet could be ready to signal a rate hike in July," Rabobank added. In the end, euro/dollar may find it difficult to find strong direction Wednesday, although rate differentials will likely push it towards $1.50 medium term, Rabobank said. |
| Asia |
| The dollar sank to a fresh one-month low against the yen in Asia Wednesday, with concerns about the U.S. economy and the lack of resilience in global stock markets prompting traders to sell the dollar and the euro for the yen to reduce risk. The dollar fell as low as Y79.75 in Tokyo morning trade, the lowest since May 5. U.S. funds apparently gave up their long positions as the dollar's upside test ended in failure, triggering stop-loss sales, traders said. At 0510 GMT, the dollar was at Y80.04 from Y80.10 in late New York Tuesday, according to EBS via CQG. "A yen-buying trend, which we haven't seen for a while, is emerging," said Yoshio Yoshida, a trader at Mizuho Trust and Blanking Corp. "The failure of the recovery in the global stock market, partly due to the slowing U.S. economy, has induced yen-buying in crosses," Yoshida said. "If stock markets lose their ground, the yen should come under further upward pressure," he added. Even though the dollar broke through the psychologically key Y80 mark and there may be further room to advance, traders and analysts here dismissed any imminent risk of currency intervention by Japan's finance ministry. The MOF last stepped into the market March 18 after the dollar fell to all-time low of Y76.25 the previous day. "The yen remains weaker compared with that period. So it's hard to find good reasons to intervene before the dollar falls to around Y76," Mizuho's Yoshida said. Yuji Saito, foreign exchange market director at Credit Agricole in Tokyo, said that unless stock markets plunge, currency intervention is unlikely before the dollar falls to Y77. A Nikkei fall below the 9000 may be a key factor in any intervention, said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist at Barclays Bank in Tokyo. |
| World |
| As risk appetite rose and doubts about Chinese buying of Treasurys surfaced, traders pushed the dollar down against most rivals Tuesday. The dollar was first hit after a report quoted a Chinese official as saying China is nervous about carrying too much dollar-denominated debt and that the dollar could fall. The official later claimed he was only expressing his private views, but the damage was done. The U.S. currency fell to a one-month low versus the euro and a new record low against the Swiss franc. The ICE Dollar index--a basket of currencies against the dollar--also hit a one-month low. Meanwhile, the euro hit its highest level against the Japanese yen since May 5 as risk appetite increased. "The dollar has failed to benefit from risk aversion last week, and now we are quickly heading towards fresh U.S. dollar lows in a number of crosses," said Jens Nordvig, head of G10 Foreign Exchange with Nomura Securities in New York. Nordvig added many investors had bet on the dollar due to risk aversion. "But if risk aversion is moderate, and driven mainly by weaker U.S. data, then it is unlikely to benefit the dollar much." But more trouble could await the dollar later this week. The European Central Bank will meet Thursday, and President Jean-Claude Trichet is expected to signal the ECB could raise rates in the coming months, perhaps as soon as next month, adding to the euro's yield advantage. However, not signaling a rate hike at the next meeting, could trigger some pullback in the euro. |
تحلیل جفت ارزها - 8th June
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