تحلیل جفت ارزها - 14th June سری دوم
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
تحلیل جفت ارزها - 14th June
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Dow Jones Newsletter 13th June
| ifcmarkets Intraday snapshot |
| EUR/USD |
Renewed EUR bear pressure on support at 1.4285 is expected, as the powerful downtrend off the June 7 reaction high at 1.4696 looks to extend. The 1.618 Fibonacci extension target at 1.4265 will provide some support, to protect the next layer of support at 1.4135. Corrective gains are limited to the 1.4445 area, and only above there would lift the bearish EUR outlook. |
| GBP/USD |
| The downside target at 1.6212 is set to be met, as the two-week bear wave gathers pace. There is scope for a clean break below 1.6212 on the back of across-board USD strength, exposing 1.6150 and potentially the May 24 reaction low at 1.6057, where a 1.618 Fibonacci extension target lies. Resistance levels at 1.6299 and 1.6325 will look to shield solid resistance at 1.6360. |
| USD/JPY |
| Upgrades the recovery off 79.69, to open the important 80.73/80.85 resistance area. The wider picture suggests a bear pennant continuation pattern is being traced out, between 79.57 and 82.23, and the attention has switched to the upper half of the range. Above 80.85 would open 81.20 and the May 31 high at 81.77. Failure to meet 80.73, combined with a break below 80.19 would question the positive USD outlook. |
| AUD/USD |
| The five-day bear wave is set for an extension lower towards 1.0441. The failure to complete an inverse head-and-shoulders base on the 60-minute chart on Friday is behind this latest setback, and a push below 1.0521 is expected to expose the May 25 reaction low at 1.0441. A downwave equality target projected off Friday's high at 1.0654 also lies at 1.0441. Corrective gains need to force a break above 1.0601 in order to lift the tone, opening 1.0654. |
| ifcmarkets Focus |
| The stakes in sterling are rising ever higher. For the moment, the pound remains resilient against the euro and the dollar. The lingering risk of a Greek debt default is hurting the single currency and worries that even the U.S. might miss its debt obligations if Congress doesn't get its act together is making investors wary of the dollar. The U.K. may have it problems but at least it can service its debt. However, the terms of engagement in the currency markets could change sharply if both the euro zone and the U.S. resolve their debt problems at least for now. This will put the problems of the pound, which have multiplied in recent weeks, back under the spotlight and sterling back under the proverbial hammer. Recent U.K. data show that the improved performance of the economy that so many had been hoping for in the second quarter simply isn't materializing and, with inflation still on the rise, the risk of stagflation is becoming real. As evidence of a disappointing recovery has rolled in, market expectations for the next rate rise have been pushed out as far as next May. This is a far cry from only a few months ago, when there were still expectations that the Bank of England could raise rates as early as this May. This shift almost makes the latest consumer price figures academic as the Bank of England is hardly in a position to increase rates even if Tuesday's data show inflation climbing over 4.5%. If anything, the deterioration in the economic outlook should help to ensure that the inflation rate falls back to the central bank's 2% target at a later stage. However, it isn't just interest rate expectations, or the lack of them, that will dictate sterling's fortunes. |
| Europe |
| The safe-haven Swiss franc was the standout performer in European trading hours Monday, rocketing to a record high against the euro as derivative markets priced in expectations for a long hot summer of volatile trading. With much of Europe out of the office for the Whit Monday holiday, thin dealing conditions resulted in a choppy trading session with no economic data or comments from central bank officials to provide direction after sharp sell-offs in the euro against the dollar and in equity markets late Friday. Although the euro managed to inch higher against the dollar, it plummeted more than 1% against the Swiss franc to a fresh all-time low of CHF1.2004. The franc benefited from a gloomy start to the week with an earthquake off the New Zealand coast and a bad Asian session for equities dampening initial market sentiment. There was some market talk of private-account selling of euros, but the franc's rally ran out of steam just before CHF1.2000, with traders blaming large stops related to option barriers. Some strategists were also left scratching their heads in the absence of any fundamental drivers in support of the Swiss currency. "There's no story supporting the Swiss franc apart from global liquidity and its super safe-haven status. It has completely decoupled from the rates market," said Ankita Dudani, a currency strategist at RBS in London. Adding to the confusion was a divergence in the performance of the Swedish krona, which in recent months has also been perceived by investors to be a refuge from the turmoil of the euro-zone debt crisis. While the franc scaled new heights against the euro, the krona sank to its lowest level so far this year. The euro traded at a 2011 high of SEK9.1297. Evidence from the options market suggests that traders are becoming increasingly nervous and are prepared to pay up for protection in anticipation of choppy summer trading. |
| Asia |
| The dollar was slightly firmer against the yen in Asian trade Monday, but the greenback and the euro will likely be pressured lower this week as global slowdown concerns and Greek debt problems encourage investors to park funds in safe-haven yen. The dollar got a brief lift in early trade as importer purchases and stop-loss buying by short-term speculators kicked in. But the greenback soon lost momentum as a risk-averse mood prevailed amid falls in Asian share prices following losses in the U.S. stock market Friday. "Upward pressure on the yen to avoid risks is likely to flare up since the Nikkei and other Asian share prices are on a declining trend," said Hideki Hayashi, global economist at Mizuho Securities. At 0450 GMT, the dollar was at Y80.55 from Y80.34 late New York Friday, according to EBS via CQG. The euro was at $1.4342 from $1.4350, while the euro was at Y115.53 from Y115.23. "The dollar/yen is likely to test again the downside to the Y79 level this week, driven by yen-buying in crosses amid weak stock markets around the globe," said Yoshio Yoshida, a trader at Mizuho Trust and Banking. Yoshida said the focus is on whether the Australian dollar, a unit favored by Japanese retail investors, falls through support at Y84.50 to gauge the momentum of yen-buying. The market in Sydney was closed for a holiday. |
| World |
| Global economic concerns led investors to seek shelter in the safe-harbor dollar Friday, pushing the euro to its deepest one-day selloff in a month. Persistent fears about the Greek debt crisis also weighed on the single currency. Markets have grown unsettled by a combination of slowing global growth and rising price pressures. On Friday, inflation fears manifested themselves in the form of May U.S. import prices, which posted an unexpected gain of 0.2%. Higher-yielding assets such as stocks and oil sold off sharply in response. Given loose U.S. monetary policy and widening fears over a possible breach of the debt ceiling, traders aren't favorably disposed to the dollar. But with Europe racing against the clock to secure a permanent solution to Greece's sovereign debt woes -- and inoculate other troubled euro zone economies against the risk of contagion -- is winning out, if only by default. "At the same time you have these euro negatives, you've had the U.S. slowdown story take hold" which has undermined the dollar, said Alan Ruskin, foreign exchange strategist at Deutsche Bank. Investor risk aversion "is the easiest place to point the finger because there's a dearth of news in Europe. There are so many balls in the air it's easy to drop one or two," he said, citing a rout in commodities, a rise in Mideast tensions and soft economic data out of China as factors as giving markets pause. |