تحلیل جفت ارزها - 09th Aug سری دوم

PRE US OPEN, Daily Technical Analysis, 09 August 2011
EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYAUD/USDGoldCrude Oil
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
EUR/USD intraday: under pressure.
Pivot: 1.4275

Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.4275 with targets @ 1.418 & 1.415 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.4275 look for further upside with 1.43 & 1.435 as targets.

Comment: the pair has struck against its resistance and remains under pressure.
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GBP/USD intraday: key ST resistance at 1.6385.
Pivot: 1.6385

Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.6385 with targets @ 1.631 & 1.627 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.6385 look for further upside with 1.644 & 1.6475 as targets.

Comment: the pair is posting a rebound but stands below its resistance.
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USD/JPY intraday: under pressure.
Pivot: 77.55

Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 77.55 with targets @ 77 & 76.7 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 77.55 look for further upside with 77.95 & 78.25 as targets.

Comment: the pair is on the downside and is challenging its support.
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AUD/USD intraday: capped by a negative trend line.
Pivot: 1.03

Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.03 with targets @ 1 & 0.99 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.03 look for further upside with 1.0405 & 1.053 as targets.

Comment: the pair has struck against its MT declining trend line and remains on the downside.
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GOLD (Spot) intraday: the bias remains bullish.
Pivot: 1735.00

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 1735 with targets @ 1790 & 1807.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1735 will call for a slide towards 1710 & 1692.

Comment: the RSI is supported by a bullish trend line.
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Crude Oil (Sep 11) intraday: 74 in sight
Pivot: 83.00

Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 83 with 75.7 & 74 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 83 will call for a rebound towards 86 & 88.3.

Comment: the RSI is capped by a declining trend line.

تحلیل جفت ارزها - 09th Aug

PRE EUROPEAN OPEN, Daily Technical analysis, 09 August 2011
EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYAUD/USDGoldCrude Oil
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
EUR/USD intraday: caution.
Pivot: 1.4275.

Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions @ 1.4265 with 1.415 & 1.412 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1.4275 will call for a rebound towards 1.43 & 1.435.

Comment: The pair is posting a rebound and is approaching its resistance, the RSI calls for caution.

Trend: ST Ltd Upside; MT Range
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GBP/USD intraday: under pressure.
Pivot: 1.6385.

Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions @ 1.6375 with targets @ 1.627 & 1.6225.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1.6385 will call for 1.644 & 1.6475.

Comment: The pair stands below its new resistance and remains under pressure.
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USD/JPY intraday: under pressure.
Pivot: 77.95.

Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions @ 77.9 with targets @ 77 & 76.7.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 77.95 will call for a rebound towards 78.25 & 78.6.

Comment: The pair remains under pressure and is challenging its support.
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AUD/USD intraday: capped by a negative trend line.
Pivot: 1.03

Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.03 with targets @ 1 & 0.99 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 1.03 look for further upside with 1.0405 & 1.053 as targets.

Comment: The pair is posting a rebound but should be capped by a MT declining trend line.
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GOLD (Spot) intraday: look for 1790
Pivot: 1720.00

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 1720 with 1772.5 & 1790 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1720 will call for 1692 & 1680.

Comment: The RSI is supported by a bullish trend line.
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Crude Oil (Sep 11) intraday: 74 in sight
Pivot: 83.00

Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 83 with 75.7 & 74 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 83 will call for a rebound towards 86 & 88.3.

Comment: The RSI is capped by a declining trend line.

Daily Forex Brief 08th August

Daily Forex Brief
London: Monday 8th August 2011


ECB now shooting with both barrels

The asset classes that are not untouched in some way by events in the Middle East are becoming few and far between. The two-day decline in US stocks has been the steepest in percentage terms since July of last year, with the rise in the VIX over this week the largest points increase since June. Emerging equities, which did stage a recovery last week, are now threatening to push fresh lows for the year in Asia, the Indian Sensex down another 1.5% today. As we've noted before, the traditional risk flows of last year are not playing out in the same way, with the dollar having barely benefitted from the weaker tone to equities. Some of this has been owing to the euro gains on the back of hawkish comments from officials, but it's telling that both the Swissie and yen are proving to be the preferred safe harbours.

Also in today's Daily Forex Brief:

  • The fallout from US downgrade continues
  • G7 back on the block
  • Latest payrolls data deeply troubling
  • The RBA's tricky policy dilemma