تحلیل جفت ارزها - 20th July

PRE EUROPEAN OPEN, Daily Technical analysis, 20 July 2011
EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYAUD/USDGoldCrude Oil
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
EUR/USD intraday: end of the consolidation.
Pivot: 1.4095.

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions @ 1.41 with 1.4225 & 1.4285 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1.4095 will open the way to 1.406 & 1.402.

Comment: The pair has broken above a declining trend line.

Trend: ST Ltd Upside; MT Range
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GBP/USD intraday: continuation of the rebound.
Pivot: 1.6085.

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions @ 1.6095 with 1.6175 & 1.62 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1.6085 will call for a slide towards 1.604 & 1.6015.

Comment: The RSI and the pair broke above bearish trend lines.
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USD/JPY intraday: intraday support around 78.85
Pivot: 78.85.

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions @ 78.9 with 79.28 & 79.5 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 78.85 will call for a slide towards 78.5 & 78.2.

Comment: A support base at 78.85 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
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AUD/USD intraday: the upside prevails.
Pivot: 1.0655

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.0655 with targets @ 1.075 & 1.079 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.0655 look for further downside with 1.063 & 1.061 as targets.

Comment: Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
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GOLD (Spot) intraday: consolidation.
Pivot: 1600.00

Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 1600 with 1576 & 1569 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 1600 will open the way to 1610 & 1618.

Comment: The price has broken below its rising trend line.
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Crude Oil (Sep 11) intraday: further advance.
Pivot: 97.65

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 97.65 with 99.25 & 99.85 in sight.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 97.65 will call for 96.75 & 95.65.

Comment: Intraday support around 97.65.

تحلیل جفت ارزها - 19th July سری دوم

PRE US OPEN, Daily Technical analysis, 19 July 2011
EUR/USDGBP/USDUSD/JPYAUD/USDGoldCrude Oil
Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out.
EUR/USD intraday: continuation of the rebound.
Pivot: 1.414

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.414 with targets @ 1.4225 & 1.4285 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.414 look for further downside with 1.4075 & 1.4025 as targets.

Comment: The pair has broken above an intraday bearish channel resistance and a ST bearish trend line.
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GBP/USD intraday: towards 1.6175.
Pivot: 1.6085

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.6085 with targets @ 1.616 & 1.6175 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.6085 look for further downside with 1.6015 & 1.599 as targets.

Comment: The RSI broke above a bearish trend line.
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USD/JPY intraday: choppy.
Pivot: 78.85

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 78.85 with targets @ 79.28 & 79.5 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 78.85 look for further downside with 78.5 & 78.2 as targets.

Comment: A support base at 78.85 has formed and has allowed for a temporary stabilisation.
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AUD/USD intraday: continuation of the rebound.
Pivot: 1.064

Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.064 with targets @ 1.071 & 1.075 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Below 1.064 look for further downside with 1.061 & 1.0565 as targets.

Comment: The RSI advocates for further upside.
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GOLD (Spot) intraday: further upside.
Pivot: 1588.00

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 1588 with 1618 & 1630 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1588 will call for a slide towards 1574 & 1557.

Comment: The price is supported by a rising trend line.
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Crude Oil (Sep 11) intraday: further advance.
Pivot: 95.00

Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 95 with 97.9 & 99.3 as next targets.

Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 95 will open the way to 94 & 92.95.

Comment: The price has broken above a declining trend line.

Daily Forex Brief 19th july

Daily Forex Brief
London: Tuesday 19th July 2011


Records for the safe havens, shame for the PIGS

It was a case of more records for the safe havens on Monday, and more shame for the PIGS. In the currency space, it is the Swiss franc which remains everyone's favourite place in order to restore the value of wealth amidst the continuing perils of owning other major currencies such as the euro, the dollar and the pound. The Swissie fell to a record 0.8033 yesterday (although it has since retraced to 0.8200), while EUR/CHF dropped to a record low under 1.14. The gold price, also in sparkling form as investors similarly flock to the precious metal, climbed through $1,600 an ounce. In contrast, bond spreads for Europe's highly-indebted economies widened significantly vis-a-vis Bunds to new record wides e.g. the IT/GER 10-yr and SP/GER 10-yr spreads were out by another 30bp at one stage, GR/GER was a further 65bp wider, while Portugal was out by another 15bp. European banking shares were pummelled again, with the Stoxx 600 banking index declining to its lowest level since early 2009.

Also in today's Daily Forex Brief:

  • US debt ceiling discussions becoming more urgent
  • Politics may hack the pound
  • Another headache for the SNB
  • The Aussie's domestic vulnerability