Daily Forex Brief 5th september
Daily Forex Brief The continuing malaise in the US jobs market lifted hopes that the Fed may need to re-consult their policy tool-kit, with renewed speculation that QE3 would be back on the table. The difficulty for the Fed Chairman in terms of implementing further QE is numerous. The success of previous rounds of QE has been mixed - they certainly lifted both commodity and asset prices, and thereby possibly thwarted a dangerous lurch into deflation, but failed to materially impact on growth, weighed heavily on the dollar, and alarmed foreign creditors. An additional challenge for the Fed Chairman is that some of his fellow policy officials are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the extraordinary risks that the central bank are running, in terms of both credibility and long term inflation. Quite rightly, many Fed officials maintain that Washington should be doing more to reduce America's fiscal obesity through a root-and-branch review of entitlements and a program of structural reforms designed to raise productivity and growth potential. However, as is the case almost everywhere across the major advanced economies right now, the political leadership to implement such a transformation is lacking, and as a result central banks are left to carry the weight of most of the policy adjustment. Should the Fed Chairman find additional QE too hard in the near term, then there is a growing school of thought that he may opt for a sizeable twist operation, whereby the Fed swaps short-dated maturities on their balance sheet in favour of longer-dated securities. It was this speculation that contributed to a significant flattening of the yield curve on Friday, with the US 2-30yr yield curve narrowing by some 15bp. With risk aversion on full display once more on Friday against the backdrop of growing double dip concerns, it was again a fabulous day for bonds, gold and the Swiss franc and a dreadful one for stocks and risk assets. Both the US and German 10 yr yields are trading below 2.0%, the gold price jumped to $1,880, and German equities were down under 5,500 (a loss of 4%). In the fx market, high-beta currencies such as the Aussie and the Loonie fell back, the former now under 1.06. Also in today's Daily Forex Brief:
London: Monday 5th September 2011
Ben must re-open his policy tool-box
تحلیل جفت ارزها - 5th Sep
PRE EUROPEAN OPEN, DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, 05 SEPTEMBER 2011 EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD GOLD CRUDE OIL Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out. EUR/USD INTRADAY: CAPPED BY A NEGATIVE TREND LINE. Pivot: 1.4230.
Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions @ 1.422 with targets @ 1.412 & 1.405.
Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1.423 will call for a rebound towards 1.43 & 1.435.
Comment: The pair and its intraday RSI remain capped by declining trend lines.
Trend: ST Ltd Upside; MT Range
NEXT » GBP/USD INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE. Pivot: 1.6225.
Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions @ 1.6215 with targets @ 1.613 & 1.6105.
Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 1.6225 will call for 1.6255 & 1.6295.
Comment: The pair stands below its resistance and remains under pressure.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT » USD/JPY INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE. Pivot: 77.00.
Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions @ 76.95 with targets @ 76.6 & 76.45.
Alternative scenario: The upside breakout of 77 will open the way to 77.2 & 77.35.
Comment: The pair has struck against its resistance and remains under pressure.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT » AUD/USD INTRADAY: THE DOWNSIDE PREVAILS. Pivot: 1.065
Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.065 with targets @ 1.0545 & 1.051 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.065 look for further upside with 1.069 & 1.0725 as targets.
Comment: The break below 1.065 is a negative signal that has opened a path to 1.0545.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT » GOLD (SPOT) INTRADAY: FURTHER UPSIDE. Pivot: 1852.00
Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 1852 with 1890 & 1910 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The downside penetration of 1852 will call for 1800 & 1770.
Comment: The RSI is supported by a bullish trend line.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT » CRUDE OIL (OCT 11) INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE. Pivot: 87.00
Most Likely Scenario: SHORT positions below 87 with 84.8 & 83 in sight.
Alternative scenario: The upside penetration of 87 will call for 87.65 & 89.9.
Comment: The RSI is bearish and calls for further downside.
تحلیل جفت ارزها - 2nd Sep سری دوم
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PRE US OPEN, DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, 02 SEPTEMBER 2011 EUR/USD GBP/USD USD/JPY AUD/USD GOLD CRUDE OIL Please note that due to market volatility, some of the below sight prices may have already been reached and scenarios played out. EUR/USD INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE. Pivot: 1.43
Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.43 with targets @ 1.421 & 1.4185 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.43 look for further upside with 1.435 & 1.4385 as targets.
Comment: the pair remains on the downside and is challenging its previous low.
NEXT » GBP/USD INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE. Pivot: 1.6225
Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 1.6225 with targets @ 1.616 & 1.613 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 1.6225 look for further upside with 1.6255 & 1.6295 as targets.
Comment: the pair and its intraday RSI remain capped by declining trend lines.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT » USD/JPY INTRADAY: UNDER PRESSURE. Pivot: 77
Most Likely Scenario: Short positions below 77 with targets @ 76.75 & 76.6 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Above 77 look for further upside with 77.2 & 77.35 as targets.
Comment: the pair is under pressure and is approaching its support, the RSI is mixed to bearish.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT » AUD/USD INTRADAY: BULLISH BIAS ABOVE 1.0675. Pivot: 1.0675
Most Likely Scenario: Long positions above 1.0675 with targets @ 1.0765 & 1.0785 in extension.
Alternative scenario: Below 1.0675 look for further downside with 1.065 & 1.061 as targets.
Comment: the RSI has just landed on a support around 30% and is reversing up.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT » GOLD (SPOT) INTRADAY: BULLISH BIAS ABOVE 1828 Pivot: 1828.00
Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 1828 with targets @ 1871 & 1888.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 1828 will open the way to 1800 & 1770.
Comment: the immediate trend remains up and the momentum is strong.
« PREVIOUS | NEXT » CRUDE OIL (OCT 11) INTRADAY: REBOUND IN SIGHT. Pivot: 87.65
Most Likely Scenario: LONG positions above 87.65 with targets @ 89 & 89.9.
Alternative scenario: The downside breakout of 87.65 will open the way to 86.5 & 85.
Comment: the RSI is negative but supported by a strong support.